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Our Wildfire Research

Headwaters Economics’ co-founder Ray Rasker discusses an innovative approach to reduce wildfire risk to homes and people.
Summary slide show

Our Experts

headwaters-staff-Kimiko-Barrett

Kimiko Barrett, Ph.D.

Lead Wildfire Researcher

406.224.1837
kimi@headwaterseconomics.org

    The wildfire problem is growing

    Since the 1970s, wildfires are burning longer, causing more damage, and costing more. Thousands of U.S. communities are impacted every year. The full costs of wildfire are largely borne at the community level by local governments, small businesses, and homeowners.

    The problem is likely to get worse in the future due to converging trends of climate change, denser forests from a century of fire suppression, more human ignitions, and rapid growth in fire-prone lands.

    Wildfires destroy thousands of structures each year

    Explore the number of structures destroyed in each state by wildfire. Structures lost—rather than acres burned—provides a more complete measure of the broad impacts of wildfire.

    Communities threatened by wildfires, 2000-2019

    From 2000-2019, nearly 2,000 U.S. communities were threatened by wildfires or potential ember spread, showing the need for adaptive planning strategies.

    Wildfire Risk Report for every U.S. community

    A new report in our Economic Profile System provides community-level data about wildfire hazard and potentially vulnerable populations.

    Full community costs of wildfire

    Almost half of the full community costs of wildfire are paid for at the local level, including homeowners, businesses, and government agencies.

    Air tanker drops fire retardant on the Willow Fire near North Fork, CA in 2015.

    Federal wildfire policy and the legacy of suppression

    Federal wildfire policy that emphasizes suppression—a legacy of early-1900s forest management—has resulted in a paradox: accumulated fuels and larger, more severe wildfires.

    Wildfire experts’ paper informs effective policy

    Wildfire experts outline key science insights important to inform policy discussions and development while reducing future risks and costs.

    Land use planning tools can reduce risk

    There is no single solution to the wildfire challenge, but land use planning tools such as zoning, building codes, and subdivision design can help communities become better fire-adapted. Risk assessments can help communities identify where regulations and mitigation strategies are most needed.

    Headwaters Economics co-leads the Community Planning Assistance for Wildfire program, which provides communities with land use planning recommendations, wildfire hazard assessments, custom research, and training.

    Reducing Wildfire Risk to Communities: Nine Solutions

    This report outlines a number of solutions to alter the pace, scale, and pattern of future development in the Wildland-Urban Interface.

    Land use planning can reduce wildfire risk to homes and communities

    Land use planning can help communities become fire-adapted and resilient in the face of increasing wildfire potential.

    Building a Wildfire-Resistant Home: Codes and Costs

    A new home built to wildfire-resistant codes can be constructed for roughly the same cost as a typical home.

    Wildfire Risk to Communities: A tool to understand, explore, and reduce risk

    The new Wildfire Risk to Communities website—developed by the USDA Forest Service in partnership with Headwaters Economics and Pyrologix—offers maps and data about community wildfire risk nationwide.

    Does Insurance Affect Home Development on Wildfire-Prone Lands?

    It is unlikely that insurance rates and policies alone will determine whether or not a landowner decides to build a new home on wildfire-prone land.

    See more wildfire research

    Community Planning Assistance for Wildfire

    Community Planning Assistance for Wildfire (CPAW) works with communities to reduce wildfire risk through improved land use planning. The program is a program of Headwaters Economics, in partnership with the USDA Forest Service.

    Learn about CPAW communities

    Peer-reviewed publications

    In addition to publishing research on our website, Headwaters Economics work has appeared in numerous peer-reviewed publications. A sampling is below.

    Quarles S, Pohl K. (2020). Costs of WUI codes and standards for new construction.  In: Manzello S. (Eds). Encyclopedia of Wildfires and Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) Fires. New York: Springer.

    Barrett K. (2019). Reducing wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: policy, trends, and solutions. Idaho Law Review, 55, 3-27.

    Schoennagel T, Balch JK, Brenkert-Smith H, Dennison PE, Harvey BJ, Krawchuk MA, Mietkiewicz N, Morgan P, Moritz MA, Rasker R, Turner MG, Whitlock C. (2017). Adapt to more wildfire in western North American forests as climate changes. PNAS, 114(18), 4582-4590.

    Rasker R. (2015). Resolving the increasing risk from wildfires in the American West. Solutions Journal, 6(2), 55-62.

    Gude PH, Jones K, Rasker R, Greenwood MC. (2013). Evidence for the effect of homes on wildfire suppression costs. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 22, 537-548.

    Gude PH, Rasker R, van den Noort J. (2008). Potential for future development on fire-prone lands. Journal of Forestry, 106(4), 198-205.

    Recent press coverage

    Headwaters Economics’ research on wildfire has appeared in a variety of media. Please contact our wildfire experts or communications staff to set up an interview.

    NPR

    Millions Of Homes Are At Risk Of Wildfires, But It’s Rarely Disclosed
    October 21, 2020

    Marketplace

    Solving the wildfire paradox
    September 22, 2020

    The New York Times

    These Changes Are Needed Amid Worsening Wildfires, Experts Say
    September 10, 2020

    Mother Jones

    Burn. Build. Repeat: Why our wildfire policy is so deadly
    August 6, 2019

    Associated Press

    US Northwest towns ‘woefully unprepared’ as fire risk grows
    August 4, 2019

    NPR

    After Paradise, living with fire means redefining resilience
    May 29, 2019

    Wall Street Journal

    The Malibu house that was prepared for one of the State’s worst wildfires
    March 28, 2019

    National Geographic

    Once derided, ways of adapting to climate change are gaining steam
    January 9, 2019

    The New York Times

    Three of California’s biggest fires ever are burning right now
    August 10, 2018

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