With stunning vistas and outdoor recreation opportunities within driving distance of every community in Wyoming, the Cowboy State is the fourth-fastest growing outdoor economy in the nation, with over $2 billion generated in 2023.
A 2023 study by Headwaters Economics found that lower-capacity communities – ones with fewer staff and limited funding – were unable to compete against higher-capacity, typically urban communities with resources devoted to writing competitive grant applications.
“We can’t address this by just treating the forest. If we’re wanting to address the entire Wildland Urban Interface, then we must very strategically and deliberately invest in the urban as much as we are in the wildland,” said Kimiko Barrett, the wildfire research and policy lead at Headwaters Economics.
Larger cities that already have more resources tend to be the most successful at winning funding for projects through BRIC, according to a September analysis by the research group Headwaters Economics.
Headwaters Economics examined statewide housing data from the Montana Department of Revenue and found one million acres of undeveloped land in the state were converted to housing since 2000. By comparison, Glacier National Park is just over one million acres.
“When we’re talking about challenges around housing affordability, for most communities, it comes down to some sort of limitation on how much housing supply they have,” said Megan Lawson, an economist at Headwaters. “And we can’t make more land.”
Competitive grants do have their place in rebuilding American infrastructure. Kristin Smith, who researches public finance with Montana-based nonprofit Headwaters Economics, said they can inspire innovative projects across the country.
“But when it comes to funding that is meant to save people’s lives, that’s designed to meet people’s basic needs, a competitive grant, in my opinion, isn’t the right tool,” Smith said. “It’s regressive. You have to have resources to access it.”
A 2023 study by Headwaters Economics found that lower-capacity communities – ones with fewer staff and limited funding – were unable to compete against higher-capacity, typically urban communities with resources devoted to writing competitive grant applications.
In mid-December, six researchers published a paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal warning that communities across the nation, but particularly those in the West, aren’t prepared to survive an urban conflagration such as the one that devastated Lahaina, Hawaii, in August.
On the contrary, local governments depend on new development to bring in more property-tax revenue. “If I’m a county commissioner, why would I care if that house burns down?” Kimi Barrett, a policy analyst at Headwaters Economics, a nonprofit research group, tells the authors. “Because I’m not going to pay for it.”
According to Headwaters Economics Rural Capacity Map, 93% of counties across the country have a higher capacity rating than Eddy County, where Sheyenne is located.
Latinos in the U.S. face a disproportionately higher risk of flood compared to other demographics, its impact widening existing inequities. This conclusion was reached by the Hispanic Access Foundation and Headwaters Economics in a new study.
Across the U.S., one of seven manufactured homes is in a neighborhood with high flood risk, according to a Headwaters Economics analysis, a figure that is only expected to rise due to climate change.
This feedback loop is what Headwaters Economics calls the “amenity trap”. Our research shows that fast-growing amenity destinations across the Mountain West are wrestling with these same challenges and finding creative solutions to avoid being loved to death.
“People don’t understand how much income comes into the state in the form of non-labor income,” Martin said, referring to a 2015 study conducted by Headwaters Economics.
A complete structure loss tally for the Carlton Complex fire doesn’t appear to exist. But according to Headwaters Economics, a nonprofit research group that compiled a national wildfire structure loss dataset from federal statistics, it consumed at least 471 structures.
Kimiko Barrett, a wildfire researcher with Headwaters Economics, said there are several reasons people live — and are moving to — these locations, including out of necessity.
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A new report from Headwaters Economics and the Hispanic Access Foundation (HAF) finds that Latinos face substantially higher flood risks in the country.
“We’re seeing year after year that there are many communities that are low-capacity or rural that are just not getting this money,” said Kristin Smith, a climate expert at Headwaters Economics research group in Montana who analyzed BRIC allocations.
