For Bozeman native Kimiko Barrett, a structural ignition expert with Headwaters Economics, memories of the 1988 Yellowstone fires burn brightly in her mind. More recently, of course, are memories of the Bridger Foothills fire, which burned more than 8,000 acres and 30 homes in 2020.
The plan cites a 2020 study by Headwaters Economics that found outdoor recreation was responsible for $26.5 billion in spending and supported 264,000 jobs.
Montana is ranked third in the nation for its outdoor economy, which accounted for $3.4 billion of the state’s gross domestic product in 2023, according to Headwaters Economics. That’s more than the state’s agriculture and forestry, mining and utilities, and transportation sectors.
But the cost of hardening an existing home can vary widely. According a study by the research group Headwaters Economics, it can run as low as $2,000 for minor upgrades to upwards of $100,000 for the highest level of protection.
“If your neighbor doesn’t do anything, and you do, if that home burns it will create so much radiant heat, yours will burn too,” said Kimiko Barrett of Headwaters Economics in Bozeman, Mont., a company that advises cities on reducing wildfire damage risk. Neighbors matter.
“There are a lot of cities that share similarities with what happened in Los Angeles,” said Kelly Pohl with Headwaters Economics, a non-profit research group in Montana that had done research on the cost of retrofitting homes to protect against wildfires. Think Boise, Idaho. Salt Lake City.
A report from Headwaters Economics in 2022 determined, in summary, “In northern and southern California, building an Enhanced wildfire-resistant home increased construction costs by approximately CAD$4,032 over the baseline home.
An opportunity has presented itself for the City of Miles City to shore up the long term sustainability of its floodplain administration as Headwaters Economics is offering not just one but two unique partnership opportunities.
“What played out in L.A. could easily occur in other communities, other cities across the West and even outside the West,” said Kimiko Barrett, the senior wildfire researcher at Montana-based Headwaters Economics.
“Once the wildland fire enters communities and homes, the homes themselves become a source of fuel, and then we see that spread to spread ignition across a community, and then you no longer have a wildland fire, you have an urban fire,” said Kimiko Barrett, a wildfire policy analyst at research group Headwaters Economics.
Across the nation, people are moving to rural counties with a high risk of wildfires, according to data from Wildfire Risk to Communities, a joint project by Headwaters Economics and the Fire Modeling Institute of the Rocky Mountain Research Station of the Forest Service.
Kimiko Barrett, senior wildfire research and policy analyst at the research institute Headwaters Economics, said there are three ways homes ignite during a wildfire: direct flame contact from the fire front, radiant heat from nearby items catching fire, or ember exposure.
A 2022 study by nonprofit research group Headwaters Economics estimated that complying with those requirements would add $26,110 to the cost of a 1,765-square-foot single family home in Southern California.
Ira Flatow talks with Dr. Kimiko Barrett, senior wildfire researcher and policy analyst at the research group Headwaters Economics in Bozeman, Montana; and Dr. Alexandra Syphard, senior research scientist at the Conservation Biology Institute in San Diego, California.
“When you’re dealing with retrofit, the conditions on the ground can vary so much that there’s significant variation [in cost],” said Kimiko Barrett, a wildfire research and policy analyst at Headwaters Economics who has examined the costs involved.
Reinforcing existing homes can vary and likely ranges from $2,000 to $15,000, while full hardening could cost as much as $100,000, according to Headwaters Economics, an independent, nonprofit research group.
The good news is, retrofitting existing homes can be relatively affordable, and new communities built from scratch even more so, according to a study by the research group Headwaters Economics.
According to a report last year from Headwaters Economics, the cost of adapting a single-family home ranges from $23,000 to $100,000, but many of the most effective interventions cost the least. Those include cleaning gutters, storing firewood far from the house, and using noncombustible fencing.
Headwaters Economics, a nonprofit research group focused on community development and land management, developed a rural capacity map to identify places with limited local government staff and expertise, institutional capacity, economic opportunity, and education and engagement.
“Montana’s been top three in these categories for more than a decade,” said Megan Lawson, an economist with Headwaters Economics. “That speaks to the size and stability of the outdoor recreation economy in Montana. This isn’t a flash in the pan due to the pandemic.”
