An analysis by the research group Headwaters Economics found that replacing a 2,000-square-foot home under the state’s fire building requirements increases the cost by, at most, $15,000.
Start with federal government data, and specifically with this United States Department of Agriculture web page, which defines four crucial terms: likelihood, intensity, exposure and susceptibility.
“Headwaters Economics found that, with the exception of isolated cases, public lands will likely not offer a solution for the country’s housing shortage,” said Patty Hernandez, the organization’s executive director. “What’s more, many of these public land units, which initially appear suitable for housing, occur in areas with extreme wildfire risk, adjacent to airports, lack infrastructure, or have other qualities that make them inappropriate or unfeasible choices for housing.”
The risk is classified as very high by the Wildfire Risk to Communities, which is a project by Headwaters Economics and the Fire Modeling Institute of the Rocky Mountain Research Station of the Forest Service.
But a 2018 study from a nonprofit research group, Headwaters Economics, found that it is possible to build fire-resistant homes for the same price as typical homes.
Likewise, “assuming a firefighter can protect our home is no longer a safe or responsible expectation to have,” says Kimiko Barrett, a wildfire resilience researcher at Headwaters Economics, an independent, nonpartisan research group.
Though they’re a bastion of affordable housing, mobile home communities are vulnerable to high-end development in regions that attract tourist and second-home owners, according to housing reports.
According to a report from Headwaters Economics, 49,120 acres of undeveloped land in Flathead County was converted to housing between 2000 and 2021, and the project’s environmental assessment claims that landowners like Green Diamond have received upwards of 16 unsolicited offers per month to sell parcels
How significant is consumer spending in these nearby towns? Data from Headwaters Economics shows that 2023 consumer spending in nearby communities topped $26 billion.
Headwaters Economics, a nonprofit research group that partners with communities to improve community development and land management, presented research on local disaster preparedness and response capacity.
According to data from Headwaters Economics, a third of homes in Montana are located in areas with moderate to high wildfire risk.
Megan Lawson is a researcher at Headwaters Economics who studies the outdoor recreation economy. She said that jobs in many rural gateway communities — the closest towns to outdoor recreation areas — rely on public land, whether the jobs are in the public or private sectors.
Kelly Pohl, associate director of the nonprofit research group Headwaters Economics that authored the analysis, said the grant program’s impact on underserved rural areas resulted from efforts by the Forest Service and Congress to reduce the barriers to federal money.
“These higher, more stable wages would result in more local spending, supporting local businesses and communities,” said Megan Lawson, Ph.D., of Headwaters Economics in an email interview with the Daily Yonder.
Kimiko Barrett of Headwaters Economics in Bozeman, Montana, who worked with counties in the state to secure Community Wildfire Defense Grants, said grant recipients were told Monday that payments had been paused for at least 10 days.
“Coming out of Los Angeles, we have learned that this is a crisis involving very specific risk reduction efforts,” Barrett said. “Without this program communities will not have the tools to continue the very important mitigation work that’s needed.”
For Bozeman native Kimiko Barrett, a structural ignition expert with Headwaters Economics, memories of the 1988 Yellowstone fires burn brightly in her mind. More recently, of course, are memories of the Bridger Foothills fire, which burned more than 8,000 acres and 30 homes in 2020.
The plan cites a 2020 study by Headwaters Economics that found outdoor recreation was responsible for $26.5 billion in spending and supported 264,000 jobs.
Montana is ranked third in the nation for its outdoor economy, which accounted for $3.4 billion of the state’s gross domestic product in 2023, according to Headwaters Economics. That’s more than the state’s agriculture and forestry, mining and utilities, and transportation sectors.
But the cost of hardening an existing home can vary widely. According a study by the research group Headwaters Economics, it can run as low as $2,000 for minor upgrades to upwards of $100,000 for the highest level of protection.
“If your neighbor doesn’t do anything, and you do, if that home burns it will create so much radiant heat, yours will burn too,” said Kimiko Barrett of Headwaters Economics in Bozeman, Mont., a company that advises cities on reducing wildfire damage risk. Neighbors matter.
