Media coverage of research by Headwaters Economics.

“How Tiny Bozeman, Montana Became a Booming Tech Town”

Fast Company

Chris Mehl is a Bozeman city commissioner and works for Headwaters Economics, which researches the economies of the rural West. His firm has documented a trend in Western urbanization that exacerbates the economic gap between small cities—think Bozeman and Bend, Oregon—and the truly rural places surrounding them.

A major determinant is infrastructure. If a town has access to transportation and high-speed internet, then it is easier for new companies to locate there. Remote employees, of which there are many in Bozeman, typically command high wages and can settle in any burg with internet access. “Why rural communities aren’t demanding broadband, I don’t know,” Mehl says.

“Study: Federal Lands Boon to Rural Areas”


An analysis released Tuesday by nonpartisan Headwaters Economics found Western rural counties with the largest shares of federal lands enjoyed faster growth in population, employment and personal income than those with the lowest percentage of public lands.

“How Public Lands in Colorado Are Boosting Local Economies”

Denver Post

The independent nonprofit research group Headwaters Economics in 2014 studied economic indicators in communities surrounding 17 national monuments in the West. Every community saw growth following the designation of a national monument.

Per capita income rose in each of the largely rural communities as the monuments helped broaden and diversify the economies in those communities, according to Montana-based Headwaters Economics. The study showed Western rural counties with more than 30 percent of their land protected under some sort of federal designation saw the number of jobs increase at a rate four times greater than counties without that level of federal land protection. Those communities also attracted business owners and entrepreneurs who were lured by the outdoor amenities and lifestyle of the region.

A more recent study by Headwaters in 2016 showed rural counties in the West with the highest percentage of federal lands show stronger income growth, population growth and job creation than the counties with the lowest percentage of federal land.

“Dam Removal: Often the Smartest, Safest Investment”

Morning Consult

Today the average U.S. dam is more than 50 years old. As this infrastructure ages, deterioration, maintenance requirements, and repair costs accelerate. Rehabilitation of a typical non-federal dam today ranges from $100,000 to millions of dollars.

According to a 2016 report by Headwaters Economics, the costs of removing certain dams may be far outweighed by the benefits…

“Bozeman Economist Recruited for National Study on Outdoor Recreation”

Bozeman Chronicle

The U.S. Department of Commerce has recruited a Bozeman economist to help study the economic impact of the country’s outdoor recreation industry.

Ray Rasker, executive director at local nonprofit research group Headwaters Economics, was one of three consultants hired by the department to perform an in-depth measure of outdoor recreation spending and how it contributes to the U.S. economy. The study comes as part of a federal bill, the Outdoor Recreation’s Economic Contributions Act of 2016, which passed the Senate earlier this week.

“Economist: Trails Are Good for Your Health and Your Wallet”

Billings Gazette

While presenting research Tuesday about the value of trails to a community’s economic vitality and residents’ health and property values, Megan Lawson realized she was preaching to the choir, in this case the Billings Chamber of Commerce Trails Committee.

Still, what the economist with Headwaters Economics in Bozeman had to say gave trails proponents — in this case, a group that includes home builders, planners, attorneys and bicyclists — information they can use to justify the group’s goal of completing Billings’ Marathon Loop of trails.

…But constructing trails is not enough, Lawson told the group. Even the communities with the nation’s best trail systems need businesses like restaurants, lodging, shuttle service, even guides, to support trail users. “Successful communities,” she said, “have figured out ways to get people from trails into the town’s businesses.”

“Will a Twice-Burned County Change Its Ways?”

High Country News

…According to researchers at Headwaters Economics, a Bozeman, Montana-based nonprofit, most Western counties, whatever their politics, generally allow risky home construction. This, in turn, puts a growing burden on the U.S. Forest Service, which bears the brunt of the region’s firefighting costs. In 2015, the agency spent more than half its $6.5 billion budget on wildfire-related activities, largely because of pressure to defend private property.

Counties and other local governments “are absolutely central” to containing those costs, says Ray Rasker, Headwaters executive director. But “it’s very rare, at the end of a fire, that a community concludes that it should have better land-use planning.”

“As Wildfire Risk Grows in the West, So Does Home Building”

Wall Street Journal

…While decisions on where to develop are made at the local level by private citizens and municipal planners, the costs of fighting fires are mostly picked up by taxpayers at the state and federal level. With that safety net in place, builders and dwellers alike are more comfortable taking the gamble on property susceptible to wildfires.

“When things go wrong, the cost of that is borne by someone else,” said Ray Rasker, executive director of Headwaters Economics, a Bozeman, Mont., nonprofit research group that focuses on natural resources management. “That’s the disconnect.”

“Why Do We Keep Putting People in the Way of Wildfire? The Wrong Carrots and Sticks”

Los Angeles Times

It’s a truism California’s harsh 2016 fire season has proved all over again: Wildfire is not the problem; the problem is people living in dangerous places.

As an economist, I would add that the reason people continue building on fire-prone lands, despite the known hazards, is because we have the incentives all wrong. Wildfire presents a classic case of a moral hazard, which is what occurs when someone takes a risk knowing someone else will bear a great deal of the cost if things go wrong.

…For too long policies have been set mostly in reaction to the last, worst fire. Now we have to bring together the firefighting community, city and county leaders, legal scholars and federal land managers to craft a set of rewards — and penalties — that will result in safer communities in the highly flammable West and the rest of the nation.

“Why Fighting Wildfires in California Costs More than Other States”

Southern California Public Radio

What makes California’s wildfires so expensive? It’s primarily that a lot of people live in the wilderness areas, according to Chris Mehl, policy director with the Montana-based nonprofit research group Headwaters Economics.

Fire agencies often devote the majority of their resources to protecting homes: between 33 and 90 percent of the cost of suppressing fires is spent on structure protection, according to Mehl.

“Panel Says Protected Public Lands Good for Politics, Economy”

Salt Lake Tribune

…During the forum titled “Winning the West,” economist Ray Rasker and others cited data and polling results that highlight the vital roles public lands play in the economic prospects and quality of life in Western counties.

Conventional wisdom among Utah’s political leaders and rural county commissioners is that national monuments and federal land management stifle economic development.

But economic data suggest the opposite is true, according to Rasker, director of the Montana-based Headwaters Economics. What Headwaters has found, in short, is: Public lands good, protected public lands better.

“The West has consistently outpaced the rest of the country in terms of job growth, personal income and per capita income. There is something unique about the West,” Rasker said.

He found that a county’s per capita income is $4,360 higher for every 100,000 acres of protected public land in its boundaries.

“Cities in Southern California Can’t Escape the Fire at Their Door”


…Dr. Kimiko Barrett, a geographer at the non-profit research group Headwaters Economics, agreed and added that local decision makers have an important part to play in reducing the threat of fire.

After the devastating Cedar fire in San Diego in 2003, the city implemented strict brush management policies for homeowners with regular on-site inspections.
“The unfortunate thing,” Barrett said, “is that awareness often comes after the fact.” We shouldn’t wait, she said, for a devastating fire to remind us that we must protect ourselves against disaster.

“New Bike Lanes Make Millennials Feel More at Home in the Suburbs”


In fact, the more pedestrian- and bicycle-friendly a small town is, the more desirable it will be for potential buyers and renters, experts say. And the more likely real estate prices are to rise, particularly when those brand-new subdivisions and fancy new condos come online.

For example, homes near walkable, and often bikeable, trails enjoy premiums of between 5% to 10%, according to an analysis by Headwaters Economics, a research group focused on community development and land management issues. Other surveys have put that percentage even higher.

“As Wildfires Challenge California, the Causes Go Beyond Climate”

Christian Science Monitor

“What we’re telling the public now is, ‘Reduce the risk of fires – if you so choose.’ Imagine if we tried driving our cars like that,” says Dr. Ray Rasker, who is also executive director of Headwaters Economics, a nonprofit research firm based in Bozeman, Mont. “Why not use regulations, building codes, and subdivision design standards, development codes and ordinances that say, ‘Look if you’re going to build there, there are certain conditions you have to meet first’?”

…The need for action continues to grow. As bad as wildfires have been in recent years, research shows they’re likely to get worse as the US population increases and people build more homes in the WUI, more than 80 percent of which remain undeveloped.

“We keep building more and more homes in harm’s way,” Rasker notes. “Unless we get a handle on development, we’re really not addressing the problem.”

“Coal Industry’s Future”

Congressional Quarterly Researcher

Mark Haggerty, an analyst with the nonpartisan research group, Headwaters Economics, in Bozeman, Mont., says he sympathizes with the need to move to cleaner fuels but says industry has a point. Transitioning to natural gas is a long-term investment, he says. “We will become dependent on natural gas, and its price is volatile, more so than coal.”

…Haggerty says the effective royalty rate is actually more like 5 percent, because coal is sometimes sold through company-affiliated brokers, complicating the calculation of the value of coal sales….In any case, the Interior Department is considering raising the minimum royalty rate. Haggerty says that’s a good idea and urges the federal government to establish a trust that would hold federal coal revenues for the benefit of struggling coal communities across the country.

“Federal Lands Support Diverse Rural economies in Idaho, West”

The Idaho Statesman

Around Idaho and the West, cities often are growing rapidly while rural places are being left behind. In urban areas, employment today is higher than before the recession, whereas in rural areas jobs have not yet recovered.

As elected officials discuss how to reinvigorate the rural West, some have pointed to federal lands as the cause of economic struggles.

Headwaters Economics asked whether federal lands are an economic liability or an asset to rural communities. We divided the rural West’s 276 counties into four quarters, according to their share of federal land.

On average, from 1970 to 2014, rural counties in the top quarter of federal land grew much faster than similar counties in the bottom quarter of federal land: Population grew four times faster, employment grew three times faster and personal income grew twice as fast…,

“Colorado and the West Winning Post-Recession Marathon of Job Gains”

The Denver Post

When it comes to having the strongest job growth across the widest array of industries over a long period, Colorado and its neighbors didn’t just sprint out of the Great Recession, but they are winning the marathon too, according to an analysis of counts from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“Distance is no longer an obstacle in the West. We have our own momentum,” said Ray Rasker, executive director of Headwaters Economics in Bozeman, Mont.

“The Graying of Rural America”

The Atlantic

Population decline in rural America is especially concentrated in the West. There’s a lot of wide-open land there, but most people, and young people especially, live in the cities. Half the jobs in Oregon, for example, are now in three counties in and around Portland, according to a study by Headwaters Economics. Almost two-thirds of Utah’s jobs are along the Wasatch Front, which runs from Salt Lake City to Provo.

…Much of the money coming into Wheeler County these days is from government benefits like Social Security and from stock dividends. Non-labor sources of income—things besides wages—were 58 percent of total income in the county in 2013, according to Headwaters Economics.