In her research with the non-profit Headwaters Economics, [Dr. Kristin] Smith found that more than one in five mobile homes in Montana are situated in high flood risk neighborhoods – something that the state has been waking up to.
That came as a surprise to economist Megan Lawson with Headwaters Economics in Bozeman, who examined the five-year data.
“Rents increased over that time period across the state, but incomes increased more,” Lawson said.
“For many, many years and decades, really those other costs that come to the surface following a wildfire event have been overlooked,” said Kimiko Barrett, a wildfire researcher and policy lead at Headwaters Economics in Montana.
“It’s concerning the fact that we continue to grow in high wildfire risk areas, rebuild in high wildfire risk areas, assuming that a wildfire won’t occur,” said Kimiko Barrett, a wildfire researcher with the Montana-based research group Headwaters Economics.
“That would affect more than wealthy landowners, said Megan Lawson of Headwaters Economics, a community development nonprofit in Bozeman, Mont.
“Amenity economies depend on guiding services, lodging and hospitality in general,” Ms. Lawson said. “That’s the lifeblood of the economy in several states.”
Wildfire Researcher Kimiko Barrett with Headwaters Economics says those homes were built close together and had high property values, increasing insurance claims.
She says urban areas traditionally thought of as safe from wildfires are more exposed as fires intensify.
“It’s entire neighborhoods being burned, in some cases hundreds, if not thousands, of structures being lost in one wildfire,” she said. “These trends unfortunately are going to increase because the risks are increasing across the board.”
“In the last few months, the Fed has been raising interest rates,” said Megan Lawson, an economist with Headwaters Economics. “And that’s slowing down new home purchases because borrowing costs are just more expensive.”
So far, Mississippi River communities have also received a smaller percentage of BRIC dollars than coastal states, according to a Headwaters Economics analysis.
Organizations such as Headwaters Economics have developed tools for federal agencies to identify at-risk populations and have begun exploring data that can measure capacity. These creative and innovative tools may be useful to a range of communities that are often missed by traditional measures of income and vulnerability.
Montana-based nonprofit research group Headwaters Economics compiles National Park Service data annually, and this week it published data showing that NPS units — which can include national monuments, forts, historical locations, parks and preserves — saw a big surge in visitors from 2020 to 2021.
“Currently, at the federal level, through the land management agencies — primarily the U.S. Forest Service — we’re spending $65 million per wildfire, which is doubling the cost since 1999,” said Kimi Barrett, a wildfire and policy analyst with Headwaters Economics, a nonpartisan independent research organization based in Bozeman, Montana.
Kris Smith, a researcher at Bozeman-based Headwaters Economics, said that when the flood hit, one of her first thoughts was: “What’s going to be the plan for making sure that we’re not worsening the housing crisis that we know is already existing in Montana?”
A report by Headwaters Economics in Bozeman recently found that throughout Montana, 20% of all mobile homes are in a neighborhood with a high flood risk, compared with 14% in America. The study found Montana’s mobile homes have a higher flood risk than mobile homes in other places in the U.S. Montana ranks fifth in the nation for neighborhoods that have both high flood risk and high mobile home density.
“Elevating homes can be pricey, and it’s easier to make the money work when properties have higher value,” said Kristin Smith, a researcher with the nonprofit Headwaters Economics. That can end up excluding “some of the people who need help the most,” especially in low-income areas, she said.
“Too many places are still operating under the mind-set that they can keep building in high-risk areas and if there’s a wildfire, the firefighters will come and save their homes,” said Kimiko Barrett, a wildfire researcher at Headwaters Economics.
A 2020 study by Headwaters Economics, commissioned by the Department of Tourism, showed that Wisconsin’s $7.8 billion outdoor economy grew by 12%, compared to 7% growth by the state’s overall economy during the summer of 2020 when the COVID pandemic was raging.
Headwaters Economics, a non-profit research group based in Montana, published an interactive data tool that shows the number of structures lost in every state from 2005 through June 2022. New Mexico saw 2,000 structures destroyed by wildfires, with nearly half of those burned this year. In Wyoming and Colorado, about half of the damage during that time frame has come in recent years.
Since the Camp Fire, state and local authorities have tightened requirements for “fire-hardened” homes, but most standards apply only to new construction, according to Kimiko Barrett, of the Bozeman, Montana-based Headwaters Economics.
When a home is built to be more resilient against environmental hazards, additional expenses can be expected. The cost of wildfire resilient measures can vary, depending upon the location, risk exposure, building size and features, as well as other factors. According to a report co-authored by IBHS and Headwaters Economics, it may add as little as $2,800 to the cost of building a new wildfire-resistant home in California.
“BRIC is intended to fund big, visionary projects that take a lot of money,” said Kristin Smith, a researcher at Headwaters Economics, a nonprofit research organization in Montana. “Those are exactly the kind of projects that many lower-capacity rural places just do not have the resources to put together.”
