Data from Headwaters Economics has shown that since 2000, at least 1 million acres of former open space has been turned into housing. While Montana grows, our access to public resources is getting harder.
Some experts warn that failing to place specific designations or deed restrictions to ensure that the parcels include housing for middle- and low-income residents will only result in land being turned into luxury or vacation homes that don’t address the housing or affordability issue.
“I think it would be quite unwise to not have some sort of deed restrictions on those properties,” said Megan Lawson, an economist at Bozeman, Montana-based Headwaters Economics.
“A lot of Montanans can do things before a fire starts,” said Kelly Pohl, an the associate director of Headwaters Economics. “We have to realize that wildfire is part of our landscape, so we have to take actions to reduce the likelihood that it will destroy property.”
Retrofitting a two-story, 2,000-square-foot home in California by taking steps such as installing flame- and ember-resistant vents, keeping gutters clean or using non-combustible mulch can cost $10,000 to $15,000, according to a 2024 analysis by Headwaters Economics, a research nonprofit focused on community development.
Kimiko Barrett, wildfire researcher and policy analyst for the nonprofit research group Headwaters Economics and a member of the commission, said the recommendations build off one another but the federal government has focused on some more than others.
According to a report called “Missing the Mark,” published last year by the Columbia Climate School and Headwaters Economics, an independent, nonprofit research group based in Montana, the most effective strategies to reduce communities’ wildfire risk aren’t just those that focus on forests, but also those that construct and adapt our homes and neighborhoods.
More homes have been built in at-risk areas over the decades, as well, making catastrophes more damaging when they occur. For example, a study by Montana-based Headwaters Economics found that between 1990 and 2018, the number of homes built in areas at high risk of wildfires almost doubled.
A new analysis from Montana think tank, Headwaters Economics, looks at BRIC money four years down the line and finds, nationwide, counties with fewer resources and staff received 19 times less BRIC funding than high-capacity counties.
Headwaters Economics, a Montana nonprofit research organization, is analyzing the cost of retrofitting homes in Hawaii. The study will take into account increased contractor and labor expenses, common architectural characteristics and the availability of fire-retardant materials, said Kimiko Barrett, senior wildfire research and policy analyst.
“It’s hard to find a place where there isn’t a risk of climate disaster,” said Patty Hernandez, director of the community development nonprofit Headwaters Economics. “We need leadership and investment to avoid disasters by building communities that are prepared.”
The Forest Service and the Bozeman-based research group Headwaters Economics run a program called Community Planning Assistance for Wildfire, which provides fire expertise to local governments.
“Retrofitting a Home for Wildfire Resistance” suggests that some of the most effective strategies to reduce the vulnerability of homes and neighborhoods to wildfire can be done affordably.
Guidance for how to build housing given the increased risks of wildfires is available from organizations such as Headwaters Economics, which recently released “Building for Wildfire in Montana: Protecting Communities with Statewide Wildfire Safety Standards.”
According to a Headwaters Economics report, between 1990 and 2016, over 43,000 acres — equivalent to 146 square miles — were converted from open space to residential development.
In May of 2023, GIS instructor and analyst at Montana State University’s Geospacial Core Facility Jackson Rose and Headwaters Economics’ Kristin Smith traveled to Glendive in order to collect light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data along a 1.24-mile span of the east Yellowstone River.
Building homes to these standards is comparable to using traditional building strategies, according to a recent report from Montana-based Headwaters Economics.
A recent report by the U.S. Forest Service in partnership with Headwaters Economics and Pyrologix reveals over 115 million people—more than one-third of the U.S. population—live in counties with high wildfire risk, and more than 48 million buildings are found within these areas.
Doug Green, a program manager for the Community Planning Assistance Wildfire Program at Headwaters Economics, agrees that wildfire risk can be lowered and worked with the city and the county in years past to try and develop local codes and regulations.
A newly updated wildfire risk map could help level the playing field for rural communities who don’t have the resources to conduct their own wildfire risk assessments, according to the independent research group Headwaters Economics.
“When done correctly, a hazard mitigation plan can help the community get behind projects and prioritize them, as well as help the community reflect on the risks they have and try to do something about them,” said Kristin Smith, a lead researcher for Headwaters Economics, a Montana-based nonprofit that helps communities with land management.
