Wildfires threaten nearly one-third of U.S. residents and buildings, according to a new government analysis that suggests the risk is greater than previously known. The Forest Service, working with Montana researchers, took a new approach to measuring wildfire risk and limited its historical analysis to the 15 years between 2004 and 2018.
Kelly Pohl, the associate director of Headwaters Economics, which partnered with the Forest Service on the site, said risk is growing as the climate warms and dries, and more homes are built in the wildlands.
Wildfires threaten nearly one-third of U.S. residents and buildings, according to a new government analysis that suggests the risk is greater than previously known.
The Forest Service, working with Montana researchers, took a new approach to measuring wildfire risk and limited its historical analysis to the 15 years between 2004 and 2018.
Megan Lawson, an economist with Bozeman-based Headwaters Economics — an independent, nonpartisan nonprofit — said in an interview with The Sheridan Press that communities themselves may best be able to recognize when short-term rental listings become a problem.
A study by Headwaters Economics estimated the completed trail’s annual benefits to Montana would include $16 million in visitor spending, $800,000 in new tax revenue and 210 new jobs.
In Washington, D.C., where bipartisan consensus is hard to come by, the Wildland Fire Mitigation and Management Commission is a rare example of serious policy in place of strained politics.
In recent years, many U.S. residents have endured devastating floods.
But a new report from the nonprofits Headwaters Economics and Hispanic Access Foundation warns that Latino communities in the states are especially at risk.
With stunning vistas and outdoor recreation opportunities within driving distance of every community in Wyoming, the Cowboy State is the fourth-fastest growing outdoor economy in the nation, with over $2 billion generated in 2023.
A 2023 study by Headwaters Economics found that lower-capacity communities – ones with fewer staff and limited funding – were unable to compete against higher-capacity, typically urban communities with resources devoted to writing competitive grant applications.
“We can’t address this by just treating the forest. If we’re wanting to address the entire Wildland Urban Interface, then we must very strategically and deliberately invest in the urban as much as we are in the wildland,” said Kimiko Barrett, the wildfire research and policy lead at Headwaters Economics.
Larger cities that already have more resources tend to be the most successful at winning funding for projects through BRIC, according to a September analysis by the research group Headwaters Economics.
Headwaters Economics examined statewide housing data from the Montana Department of Revenue and found one million acres of undeveloped land in the state were converted to housing since 2000. By comparison, Glacier National Park is just over one million acres.
“When we’re talking about challenges around housing affordability, for most communities, it comes down to some sort of limitation on how much housing supply they have,” said Megan Lawson, an economist at Headwaters. “And we can’t make more land.”
Competitive grants do have their place in rebuilding American infrastructure. Kristin Smith, who researches public finance with Montana-based nonprofit Headwaters Economics, said they can inspire innovative projects across the country.
“But when it comes to funding that is meant to save people’s lives, that’s designed to meet people’s basic needs, a competitive grant, in my opinion, isn’t the right tool,” Smith said. “It’s regressive. You have to have resources to access it.”
A 2023 study by Headwaters Economics found that lower-capacity communities – ones with fewer staff and limited funding – were unable to compete against higher-capacity, typically urban communities with resources devoted to writing competitive grant applications.
In mid-December, six researchers published a paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal warning that communities across the nation, but particularly those in the West, aren’t prepared to survive an urban conflagration such as the one that devastated Lahaina, Hawaii, in August.
On the contrary, local governments depend on new development to bring in more property-tax revenue. “If I’m a county commissioner, why would I care if that house burns down?” Kimi Barrett, a policy analyst at Headwaters Economics, a nonprofit research group, tells the authors. “Because I’m not going to pay for it.”
According to Headwaters Economics Rural Capacity Map, 93% of counties across the country have a higher capacity rating than Eddy County, where Sheyenne is located.
Latinos in the U.S. face a disproportionately higher risk of flood compared to other demographics, its impact widening existing inequities. This conclusion was reached by the Hispanic Access Foundation and Headwaters Economics in a new study.
