“What played out in L.A. could easily occur in other communities, other cities across the West and even outside the West,” said Kimiko Barrett, the senior wildfire researcher at Montana-based Headwaters Economics.
“Once the wildland fire enters communities and homes, the homes themselves become a source of fuel, and then we see that spread to spread ignition across a community, and then you no longer have a wildland fire, you have an urban fire,” said Kimiko Barrett, a wildfire policy analyst at research group Headwaters Economics.
Across the nation, people are moving to rural counties with a high risk of wildfires, according to data from Wildfire Risk to Communities, a joint project by Headwaters Economics and the Fire Modeling Institute of the Rocky Mountain Research Station of the Forest Service.
Kimiko Barrett, senior wildfire research and policy analyst at the research institute Headwaters Economics, said there are three ways homes ignite during a wildfire: direct flame contact from the fire front, radiant heat from nearby items catching fire, or ember exposure.
A 2022 study by nonprofit research group Headwaters Economics estimated that complying with those requirements would add $26,110 to the cost of a 1,765-square-foot single family home in Southern California.
Ira Flatow talks with Dr. Kimiko Barrett, senior wildfire researcher and policy analyst at the research group Headwaters Economics in Bozeman, Montana; and Dr. Alexandra Syphard, senior research scientist at the Conservation Biology Institute in San Diego, California.
“When you’re dealing with retrofit, the conditions on the ground can vary so much that there’s significant variation [in cost],” said Kimiko Barrett, a wildfire research and policy analyst at Headwaters Economics who has examined the costs involved.
Reinforcing existing homes can vary and likely ranges from $2,000 to $15,000, while full hardening could cost as much as $100,000, according to Headwaters Economics, an independent, nonprofit research group.
The good news is, retrofitting existing homes can be relatively affordable, and new communities built from scratch even more so, according to a study by the research group Headwaters Economics.
According to a report last year from Headwaters Economics, the cost of adapting a single-family home ranges from $23,000 to $100,000, but many of the most effective interventions cost the least. Those include cleaning gutters, storing firewood far from the house, and using noncombustible fencing.
Headwaters Economics, a nonprofit research group focused on community development and land management, developed a rural capacity map to identify places with limited local government staff and expertise, institutional capacity, economic opportunity, and education and engagement.
“Montana’s been top three in these categories for more than a decade,” said Megan Lawson, an economist with Headwaters Economics. “That speaks to the size and stability of the outdoor recreation economy in Montana. This isn’t a flash in the pan due to the pandemic.”
Worker wages in Montana have been stagnant for decades, said Megan Lawson with the independent research group Headwaters Economics in Bozeman. Income from stocks, real estate and other investments has risen sharply, reflecting the changing — and wealthier — demographic.
“Certainly a large share of it is coming from folks who are moving into this state,” Lawson said. “When you put all this together it helps to explain the story of the political shift.”
In 2022, an analysis by the nonprofit research group Headwaters Economics found that the trail could eventually spur 25 million annual trips and more than $200 million in visitor spending for trailside communities.
A recent report from Headwaters Economics shows that snow activities combined accounted for nearly $84 million in gross domestic product in Wisconsin in 2022.
According to a report by Headwaters Economics, incorporating such measures in home construction can increase overall costs by 2% to 13%. Still, they significantly reduce the chances the house will burn in a major wildfire.
The cost of reinforcing existing homes against wildfires can vary significantly, depending on the extent of protection needed and the size of the home, but will likely range between $2,000 and $15,000, and full hardening could cost as much as $100,000, according to Headwaters Economics.
A full retrofit of a typical 2,000-square-foot (186-square-meter) home in California involves installing new windows, enclosing eaves and replacing wooden decks or roofs, and the cost can easily soar to $40,000, according to a report earlier this year by researcher Headwaters Economics.
“There are clear ways that by pursuing these strategies the state of Montana can save hundreds of millions of dollars,” said Patty Hernandez, executive director of Headwaters Economics, a nonprofit research group based in Bozeman.
“They might be economically disadvantaged, where these disasters can just instigate downward spirals,” said Kristin Smith, a researcher and policy analyst at Headwaters Economics. She said climate change is also causing more smaller disasters that aren’t large enough to warrant federal funding.
