“Montana’s been top three in these categories for more than a decade,” said Megan Lawson, an economist with Headwaters Economics. “That speaks to the size and stability of the outdoor recreation economy in Montana. This isn’t a flash in the pan due to the pandemic.”
Worker wages in Montana have been stagnant for decades, said Megan Lawson with the independent research group Headwaters Economics in Bozeman. Income from stocks, real estate and other investments has risen sharply, reflecting the changing — and wealthier — demographic.
“Certainly a large share of it is coming from folks who are moving into this state,” Lawson said. “When you put all this together it helps to explain the story of the political shift.”
In 2022, an analysis by the nonprofit research group Headwaters Economics found that the trail could eventually spur 25 million annual trips and more than $200 million in visitor spending for trailside communities.
A recent report from Headwaters Economics shows that snow activities combined accounted for nearly $84 million in gross domestic product in Wisconsin in 2022.
According to a report by Headwaters Economics, incorporating such measures in home construction can increase overall costs by 2% to 13%. Still, they significantly reduce the chances the house will burn in a major wildfire.
The cost of reinforcing existing homes against wildfires can vary significantly, depending on the extent of protection needed and the size of the home, but will likely range between $2,000 and $15,000, and full hardening could cost as much as $100,000, according to Headwaters Economics.
A full retrofit of a typical 2,000-square-foot (186-square-meter) home in California involves installing new windows, enclosing eaves and replacing wooden decks or roofs, and the cost can easily soar to $40,000, according to a report earlier this year by researcher Headwaters Economics.
“There are clear ways that by pursuing these strategies the state of Montana can save hundreds of millions of dollars,” said Patty Hernandez, executive director of Headwaters Economics, a nonprofit research group based in Bozeman.
“They might be economically disadvantaged, where these disasters can just instigate downward spirals,” said Kristin Smith, a researcher and policy analyst at Headwaters Economics. She said climate change is also causing more smaller disasters that aren’t large enough to warrant federal funding.
Data from Headwaters Economics has shown that since 2000, at least 1 million acres of former open space has been turned into housing. While Montana grows, our access to public resources is getting harder.
Some experts warn that failing to place specific designations or deed restrictions to ensure that the parcels include housing for middle- and low-income residents will only result in land being turned into luxury or vacation homes that don’t address the housing or affordability issue.
“I think it would be quite unwise to not have some sort of deed restrictions on those properties,” said Megan Lawson, an economist at Bozeman, Montana-based Headwaters Economics.
“A lot of Montanans can do things before a fire starts,” said Kelly Pohl, an the associate director of Headwaters Economics. “We have to realize that wildfire is part of our landscape, so we have to take actions to reduce the likelihood that it will destroy property.”
Retrofitting a two-story, 2,000-square-foot home in California by taking steps such as installing flame- and ember-resistant vents, keeping gutters clean or using non-combustible mulch can cost $10,000 to $15,000, according to a 2024 analysis by Headwaters Economics, a research nonprofit focused on community development.
Kimiko Barrett, wildfire researcher and policy analyst for the nonprofit research group Headwaters Economics and a member of the commission, said the recommendations build off one another but the federal government has focused on some more than others.
According to a report called “Missing the Mark,” published last year by the Columbia Climate School and Headwaters Economics, an independent, nonprofit research group based in Montana, the most effective strategies to reduce communities’ wildfire risk aren’t just those that focus on forests, but also those that construct and adapt our homes and neighborhoods.
More homes have been built in at-risk areas over the decades, as well, making catastrophes more damaging when they occur. For example, a study by Montana-based Headwaters Economics found that between 1990 and 2018, the number of homes built in areas at high risk of wildfires almost doubled.
A new analysis from Montana think tank, Headwaters Economics, looks at BRIC money four years down the line and finds, nationwide, counties with fewer resources and staff received 19 times less BRIC funding than high-capacity counties.
Headwaters Economics, a Montana nonprofit research organization, is analyzing the cost of retrofitting homes in Hawaii. The study will take into account increased contractor and labor expenses, common architectural characteristics and the availability of fire-retardant materials, said Kimiko Barrett, senior wildfire research and policy analyst.
“It’s hard to find a place where there isn’t a risk of climate disaster,” said Patty Hernandez, director of the community development nonprofit Headwaters Economics. “We need leadership and investment to avoid disasters by building communities that are prepared.”
The Forest Service and the Bozeman-based research group Headwaters Economics run a program called Community Planning Assistance for Wildfire, which provides fire expertise to local governments.
