National monuments represent a small share of protected federal land in the United States, yet they safeguard some of the nation’s most unique historical, geological, cultural, and ecological areas. Because designation comes with limitations of future land use, national monument creation often raises concerns about whether new protections could slow economic growth or limit opportunity.
In a new analysis that builds on previous work, Headwaters Economics finds that national monument designations do not disrupt local economies. Employment and population trends continue on the same trajectory after designation, and income growth tends to improve modestly over time.
National monuments do not disrupt local economies
Headwaters Economics conducted a comprehensive statistical analysis of economic trends in communities surrounding 30 large national monuments designated before 2022 in the western United States (see data sources and methods below). Using county-level federal data, we examined key economic indicators before and after designation to analyze changes in local economic performance.
Overall, monument designation is associated with:
- No disruption to jobs or population growth. Employment and population trends continue as before designation.
- Slight increases in income. Growth in per capita income and non-labor income tends to accelerate after monument designation.
- Stable economic trajectory. Monument designation is not associated with downturns in any major sector, including farming, mining, or services.
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In short, the data show that economic trajectories persist following national monument designations.
Explore the data for individual monuments in the interactive data visualization below. Fact Sheets for select monuments are also available for download below.
Key economic indicators
We evaluated four core measures of local economic performance before and after designation.
Jobs
Trends in employment indicate whether the economy is growing, adding businesses and jobs, or whether the local economy is contracting. While this high-level metric does not indicate the type of jobs being added, regions that are adding jobs over time generally have a strong economy.
Non-Labor Income
Non-labor income includes income people receive that is separate from their job. Most non-labor income comes from investments and real estate rental or leasing, and also includes benefits like social security and Medicare.
Earnings per Job
Earnings per job measures the average wages an employee living in the region receives. This metric captures whether prosperity for a typical worker in the area is improving or declining.
Per Capita Income
Per capita income measures all income in an area divided by its population. It includes income earned from jobs in the area as well as non-labor income. In areas with high levels of non-labor income, per capita income can be substantially higher than earnings per job.
Forecasting economic performance for newly designated monuments
Five large national monuments were designated in 2022 or later in the West: Avi Kwa Ame in Nevada, Baaj Nwavjo I’Tah Kukveni in Arizona, Camp Hale/High Divide in Colorado, and Chuckwalla and Sáttítla Highlands in California. Since not enough time has passed to measure post-designation trends, we forecast expected economic performance in nearby communities using the results from 30 established monuments.
The forecasted data—shown below—suggest these newly designated monuments are likely to experience the same economic trajectories and modest employment and income growth observed elsewhere. Sáttítla Highlands National Monument is the only monument where the surrounding communities are not expected to grow across all economic indicators. This monument is located in Siskiyou County, California, where total employment and population have slowly declined since 2001, which is more than two decades prior to the national monument’s designation.
National monuments help promote stable and diversified local economies
This study adds to a growing body of research showing that national monument designations are associated with long-term growth in population, employment, and income. The trends in these economic performance measures continue or improve after designation. Other studies have found that monument status can increase business creation, attract new residents, and reduce business closures in surrounding communities.
Across decades of national monument history, one pattern holds true: national monuments protect valued landscapes without disrupting the local economies that depend on them.
Fact Sheets
Download individual fact sheets for select monuments below.
Data Sources and Methods
We identified 35 national monuments that met each of the following criteria:
- Located in the 11 Western states.
- Greater than 10,000 acres to ensure a cohort of similarly sized places.
- Designated after 1982 due to data limitations before that time.
For each monument, we then identified associated counties that both:
- Intersected the monument boundary prior to 2018; and
- Contained at least 5% of the monument’s total land area.
Some national monuments have had boundary changes, but this did not affect their associated counties.
We examined economic indicators for all qualifying counties from the following data sources:
- U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
- U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Outdoor Recreation Satellite Account.
- U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts.
We report GDP and income in 2024 dollars.
For monuments designated in 2022 or later, we projected values of economic indicators using a panel model approach. This model specification allows us to account for temporal trends that affect all monuments and unobserved heterogeneity between monument regions, as well as identify any effects, positive or negative, of monument designation on economic performance.
For more detail and complete modeling methodology, download the full Methods and Data Sources.
Acknowledgments
Emma Hoskins provided research support for this analysis. This research was produced in partnership with The Conservation Alliance.
