The economic future of outdoor recreation in New Mexico’s Cibola and McKinley counties
Trails that offer access to mountains, mesas, lakes, and other outdoor recreation opportunities are increasingly seen as important assets to the economy and quality of life for many communities. Yet land managers and policy makers who want to leverage the broad benefits of trail networks often struggle to find accurate data about trail usage, visitor demographics, and the resulting contributions to the local economy.
To help address this challenge, Headwaters Economics developed new methods to measure trail use that apply statistical analyses to data from on-the-ground trail counters and novel data sources such as fitness apps and historical weather patterns. These new methods provide robust, accurate trail use estimates at a lower cost than traditional approaches. Better estimates of trail use also enable economic modeling that demonstrates how trail use creates specific economic impacts.
In partnership with community leaders, Headwaters Economics applied these new methods to an increasingly popular trail network in New Mexico’s Cibola and McKinley counties. The findings, also detailed in a brochure for community leaders, are highlighted below.
Trails in Cibola and McKinley counties are in high demand
Headwaters Economics measured trail use with a combination of infrared trail counters and statistical analysis from June 2023 to May 2024 and found that people used the trails more than 110,000 times, including roughly 33,000 trips by visitors.
114,000 annual trail trips
This is more than the combined population of Cibola and McKinley counties and amounts to more than 300 trips per day.
30% of trail users are visitors
About 33,000 trail trips were made by visitors who came from at least 50 miles away. Most visitors come from
Albuquerque.
Outdoor recreation diversifies the local economy
Trail users spent money at local businesses such as hotels and restaurants, which translated into jobs, local tax revenues, and a robust outdoor recreation economy.
$1.7 million in visitor spending
at local businesses by people who come for outdoor recreation. This spending represents new money brought into the community.
$249,000 in labor income
generated by trail users across diverse businesses, including retail, lodging, restaurants, and professional services.
$127,000 in state and local tax revenue
generated due to economic activity created by trail users.
Trails connect the community
More than two-thirds of trail users are local residents. The region’s trail networks are making important contributions to community cohesion, business development, and public health.
Trails help attract and keep residents and businesses.
People want to live close to trails, and business owners see trail access as a recruitment tool.
Trails benefit community health.
Community trails have been shown to help increase residents’ levels of physical activity.
Trails create community connections.
Trails can create opportunities for social connection and safe places for recreation, improving a community’s quality of life.
These findings represent the contribution of trails to the economies and well-being of two specific counties, based on new methods for measuring trail use. While the conclusions are unique to Cibola and McKinley counties, the methods can be scaled to virtually any landscape, offering new levels of accuracy for those seeking to better manage and develop outdoor recreation opportunities.
