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Kimiko Barrett, a research and policy analyst with Headwaters Economics, discusses why wildfires pose a particularly difficult challenge to state budgets and local communities.

The Montana Nonprofit Association hired Headwaters Economics of Bozeman to create a report called “Potential Impacts of Federal Cuts to Montanans and Montana’s Economy,” which the organization says details “the significant role of federal funding in the state’s economic landscape…”

A 2017 study by Headwaters Economics, a nonprofit research group, found that Western rural counties with more public land have had greater economic growth, including in jobs and personal income, than those with little public land.

Megan Lawson studies the effects of outdoor recreation at Headwaters Economics. She said when people aren’t spending at businesses, that diminishes local government and statewide tax revenue. “When a wildfire is happening, visitors aren’t going to be coming to town,” Lawson said.

If homes are being rebuilt, they should be built with wildfire in mind because unfortunately we do know that risks are increasing,” says Kimiko Barrett, senior wildfire researcher at Headwaters Economics, a non-profit think tank. “History repeats itself. This will not be the only time that L.A. experiences a catastrophic wildfire.”

A recent Headwaters Economics analysis found 1,100 communities in 32 states shared similar risk profiles to places recently devastated by urban wildfires. A ‘Firewise’ movement HWMO helps communities like Kahikinui become Firewise.

An analysis by the research group Headwaters Economics found that replacing a 2,000-square-foot home under the state’s fire building requirements increases the cost by, at most, $15,000.

Start with federal government data, and specifically with this United States Department of Agriculture web page, which defines four crucial terms: likelihood, intensity, exposure and susceptibility.

“Headwaters Economics found that, with the exception of isolated cases, public lands will likely not offer a solution for the country’s housing shortage,” said Patty Hernandez, the organization’s executive director. “What’s more, many of these public land units, which initially appear suitable for housing, occur in areas with extreme wildfire risk, adjacent to airports, lack infrastructure, or have other qualities that make them inappropriate or unfeasible choices for housing.”

The risk is classified as very high by the Wildfire Risk to Communities, which is a project by Headwaters Economics and the Fire Modeling Institute of the Rocky Mountain Research Station of the Forest Service. 

But a 2018 study from a nonprofit research group, Headwaters Economics, found that it is possible to build fire-resistant homes for the same price as typical homes.

Likewise, “assuming a firefighter can protect our home is no longer a safe or responsible expectation to have,” says Kimiko Barrett, a wildfire resilience researcher at Headwaters Economics, an independent, nonpartisan research group.

Though they’re a bastion of affordable housing, mobile home communities are vulnerable to high-end development in regions that attract tourist and second-home owners, according to housing reports.

According to a report from Headwaters Economics, 49,120 acres of undeveloped land in Flathead County was converted to housing between 2000 and 2021, and the project’s environmental assessment claims that landowners like Green Diamond have received upwards of 16 unsolicited offers per month to sell parcels

How significant is consumer spending in these nearby towns? Data from Headwaters Economics shows that 2023 consumer spending in nearby communities topped $26 billion.

Headwaters Economics, a nonprofit research group that partners with communities to improve community development and land management, presented research on local disaster preparedness and response capacity.

According to data from Headwaters Economics, a third of homes in Montana are located in areas with moderate to high wildfire risk.

Megan Lawson is a researcher at Headwaters Economics who studies the outdoor recreation economy. She said that jobs in many rural gateway communities — the closest towns to outdoor recreation areas — rely on public land, whether the jobs are in the public or private sectors.

Kelly Pohl, associate director of the nonprofit research group Headwaters Economics that authored the analysis, said the grant program’s impact on underserved rural areas resulted from efforts by the Forest Service and Congress to reduce the barriers to federal money.

“These higher, more stable wages would result in more local spending, supporting local businesses and communities,” said Megan Lawson, Ph.D., of Headwaters Economics in an email interview with the Daily Yonder.